Armageddon

Armageddon: What Would Happen in Real Life.

Overall, Armageddon is not the best movie in the world. It was directed by Michael Bay, a director notable for directing terrible movies (such as the Transformers movies and Pearl Harbor), and this movie is no exception. Although the movie is lovely to look at, it also as intelligent as the asteroid that serves as the antagonist. The physics are terrible, the dialogue cheesy, and the furious editing abhorrent. The movie was nominated for seven (yes, seven) Golden Raspberry Awards, with Bruce Willis winning for worst actor. However, the purpose of this article is not to discuss just how bad the movie is, but to discuss NASA's plans for when this would actually happen in real life.

Earlier this year, Nasa presented a Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario at the 2019 IAA Planetary Defense Conference in College Park, Maryland. On their website, they make it quite clear that the information presented is purely hypothetical and is not to be considered real in any way, shape, or form. The scenario is outlined in several bullet points on the website, and begins as follows:

• An asteroid is discovered in March, at magnitude 21.1, and confirmed the following day.
• Initial calculations indicate the orbit approaches within 0.05 astronomical units of Earth's orbit
• The orbit is eccentric, extending from a distance between 0.89 au to 2.94 au. Its orbital period is 971 days.
• The day after the asteroid is discovered, ESA and CLOMON confirm that the most likely impact occurs on April of 2027.
• Impact is low, due to being so far out.
• Very little is known about the physical properties. Its magnitude is estimated to be about H=21.7 +/- 0.4. 
• Asteroid approaches Earth well after a month of discovery, and reaches closest point of 0.13 au on May 13. 
• Astronomers continue to track asteroid every night, and probability of hitting the Earth rises to almost 1%

The diagram above shows the paths of orbit of the Earth and the asteroid

 

This diagram shows the intersection point of the orbits of the asteroid and the Earth.

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The article can be found by clicking on this link.